Saturday, February 4, 2012

122 licences cancelled , another 50K Crore?

@4.4Mhz for each of the 122 circles, about 530Mhz will be Available for auction.  Just to re-cap, 3G auction resulted in @ 71 Blocks * 5 Mhz , 355 Mhz spectrum was sold at roughly 190Crore per Mhz  ( Frequecy pair - UL +DL) 

 Even if consider the say 50%  ( Trying to be Bejan Daruwalla for a moment!!) of the average price realized during the 3G Auction per Mhz, the upcmoing 2G Auction could give more than 50K Crore.  But will the Telcos be able to cough up this with already stretched Balance sheets. Hopefully,  the goverment will make this  530Mhz  technology neutral,  that would make it attractive the operators as they could use the spectrum for 4G whenever it becomes economically viable.

Will large players buy? Spectrum is so scarce that they will bid.  . But what will they do with their existing 3G spectrum. The bigger ones could move their higher ARPU customers to 3G and free-up some space.

Will the operators like Uninor rebid in the auction? They could at least in the circles they are doing well. Infact Uninor wanted additional spectrum in some of the circles where they were doing well like Westbengal.

Dwindling ARPU. Prices will go up and some sanity will set-in. India’s ARPU is about 2USD are perhaps the lowest

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